UK posts biggest jump in annual inflation on record

Consumer prices in the United Kingdom, UK, rose at their fastest recorded rate during August as global supply shortages and higher wages accentuated the uptick from pandemic-related discounts a year ago, official figures showed this week.

The Office for National Statistics said inflation accelerated to 3.2 per cent in the year through August from 2 per cent the previous month. The scale of the increase month-on-month was the biggest since the consumer price index measure of inflation was introduced a quarter of a century ago.

The spike takes inflation way above the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, and is likely to ratchet pressure on policymakers to soon consider raising interest rates from record lows.

The increase was slightly more than anticipated in financial markets, with most economists predicting a spike to 3 per cent.

Because inflation has risen by more than one percentage point above the Bank of England’s target, its governor, Andrew Bailey, will have to write a letter to Treasury chief Rishi Sunak explaining what’s going on.

Bailey is widely expected to say that much of the increase was due to temporary factors related to the pandemic. Over the past decade, the central bank has tolerated higher-than-target inflation provided it thought the underlying reasons behind the increase were transitory.

After all, restaurant prices were a big reason behind the August spike, as last year the government offered discounts on meals via its ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme in an attempt to bolster the economy in the wake of the first national lockdown.

Under the programme, sitting customers were able to receive a 50 per cent discount on food and non-alcoholic drinks at participating restaurants between Monday and Wednesday up to £10 (US$13.50) per person. It was a hugely popular scheme with more than 100 million discounted meals eaten in the UK.

There were other reasons behind the increase, not least the sharp spike in a raft of energy prices as the global economy recovers from the initial shock of the pandemic. That impact on inflation is being felt around the world.

A pick-up in demand after lockdown restrictions were eased, higher wages, global supply chain issues, a lack of drivers to transport goods and price rises related to Britain’s departure from the European Union also contributed to the uptick.

Economists said inflation is likely to peak at a higher level than previously thought, perhaps beyond 4 per cent, though much will depend on the pandemic’s path over the winter.

As a result, many think the Bank of England could stop its programme of asset purchases in financial markets at the end of this year and increase its main interest rate from the record low of 0.1 per cent as soon as the first half of 2022.

“The data seem consistent with the Bank of England’s expectations of some modest tightening in the coming years,” said Debapratim De, senior economist at Deloitte. “If U.K. growth continues as currently forecast, we are likely to see the first rate rise by next summer.”

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AP