Editorial | In the third term

More Jamaicans, who cast ballots in yesterday’s general election, have reposed their confidence in Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness and his Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to form the island’s government for what, for that party, is an unprecedented third consecutive term.

The People’s National Party (PNP) previously won four consecutive terms (1989-2007), three of which were during the leadership of its former president, P.J. Patterson. So, Dr Holness has joined an exclusive club for prime ministers with three wins on the trot in national elections.

But even as they celebrate, Dr Holness and his party have no cause to gloat. Where the JLP enjoyed a 35-seat majority in the last Parliament, that has been slashed to five in the 63-member House of Representatives. It won 34 seats to the PNP’s 29. Moreover, fewer than four in 10 (38 per cent) of the over two million registered voters cast ballots, around the same number as in 2020, maintaining the troubling trend of voter apathy that has accelerated since the start of the 2000s.

Clearly, Dr Holness and the JLP enjoy a mandate to lead, a broad interpretation of which is that the majority of Jamaicans, in general, were satisfied with their performance after a decade in government and wish them to continue. The flipside of this is that sufficient voters were not enamoured with the offerings of the PNP, including that party’s promise to quickly raise the personal income tax (PIT) threshold to J$3.5 million. The current threshold is J$1.7 million, which the JLP has proposed to move to J$2 million by 2027-28. It has also promised a phased reduction of the income rate from 25 per cent to 15 per cent.

MORE CONVINCED

It seems, on its face, that voters were more convinced of the JLP’s capacity to manage and fund its policy, than were persuaded by the PNP’s argument that it could implement its PIT programme without having to hike taxes elsewhere.

But while the JLP may have won this aspect of the argument, Prime Minister Holness, his party and his Cabinet should not be lulled into complacency about the challenges faced by Jamaica, the party and Mr Holness himself.

First, there is the question of governance that must be addressed fully and frankly.

After the two one-term administrations (JLP, 2007-2012; PNP, 2012-2016), it was assumed that the multi-cycle stint enjoyed by the PNP from the late 1980s into the 2000s was irrevocably broken and the old-term trend might return. But in 2020 the JLP, though on a record-low voter turnout (38.7 per cent) defeated a badly fractured and demoralised PNP. It has now won a third term.

Mr Holness, in these circumstances, must guard against arrogance in his ministers, and sense of personal ownership of the State, that often set in among people who have savoured power for a long time. Which is a long time. They are now looking at 15.

There is an important context in which Prime Minister Holness and the administration he leads must consider that matter. As the 2023 biennial survey on attitudes to democracy in the Americas by Vanderbilt University’s LAPOP opinion laboratory highlighted, 86 per cent of Jamaica hold that the country’s political and government bureaucracy is corrupt. They have generally low opinions of institutions of the State.

Worryingly, only 58 per cent of the population declared themselves fully committed to democracy, and worse, a meagre 28 per cent felt that democracy, as practised in Jamaica, worked in their interest.

MILITARY COUP

In this scenario, half the country said that they would tolerate a military coup to fight corruption. Happily – but for 1980 when a misguided band of sergeants and rank-and-file soldiers attempted to incite an insurrection – no military officer, while still in uniform, has indicated an appetite to trade the barracks for offices that, up to now, have remained the preserve of civilian leadership.

To ensure that it remains this way, Jamaica’s political leaders, with the greater onus on those in government, have to work hard to rebuild trust in government. In that regard, the government is obligated to strengthen integrity institutions, including providing them with more robust powers to fight corruption.

Although the majority of voters have given him the benefit of the doubt by reposing their trust in him, Prime Minister Holness must be keenly aware of the urgency in resolving his own issue with the Integrity Commission over his assets and liabilities filings.

Among the reasons why Jamaicans renewed the JLP’s mandate was their satisfaction with the Government’s stewardship of the economy.

It has maintained the downward trajectory of the country’s debt, which will reach below the benchmark 60 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of this fiscal year. Inflation has stabilised, and unemployment is at a historically low 3.3 per cent.

However, labour productivity continues to decline at around one per cent a year, as has total factor productivity. The economy has struggled to grow at more than one per cent per annum.

It is increasingly obvious that while an important precondition for it, macroeconomic stability is not of itself a driver of robust and sustainable growth. It was this understanding that triggered Prime Minister Holness’ declaration nearly a year ago of his government’s pivot to growth. This must now be accelerated.

The administration, as The Gleaner has proposed, must therefore move aggressively to break the interlocking loops that constrain growth through a coordinated programme to:

n improve education outcomes;

n expanding vocational education and training programmes;

n investing in research and development;

n adopting artificial intelligence technologies across the economy;

n lower cost in energy; and

n improve efficiency and competitiveness in logistics.

In other words, regardless of the name it ascribes to the project, the administration must urgently create partnerships with all stakeholders to pursue a coordinated industrial strategy.