Editorial | Crack in Guyana’s politics of race?

Jamaicans were perhaps too concerned last week with the general election at home to pay attention to the one in sister Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member Guyana, whose outcome deserves close observation and analysis for what it may be telling about that country’s historically ethnic-based politics.

The obvious result of the Guyana election is that in its sometimes complex proportional representation system, the mostly Indo-Guyanese People’s Progressive Party (PPP) handily won the poll, returning Irfaan Ali for a second term as president. The party received over 55 per cent of the popular vote, increasing its take by nearly five per cent.

The PPP will now have 36 seats in the 65-seat National Assembly, increasing its share by three.

Another important takeaway is that despite complaints of PPP unfairly hogging state media and using public resources as though it were party money during the campaign, this time – unlike in 2020 when it required several months, multiple court cases and the intervention of other Caribbean leaders to resolve the issue – the question of who won was quickly determined. The opposition parties grumbled and insisted on reforms, but readily conceded.

That the PPP and its junior partner, Civic, won ought perhaps not to be surprising. When it returned to office five years ago, defeating the People’s National Congress (PNC)-led A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), Guyana was on the cusp of its oil-generated economic boom.

Indeed, in half a decade, the country’s GDP has grown five-fold, projected to pass US$25 billion in 2025 – a fifth larger than Jamaica’s, but with less than 30 per cent of this country’s population. The Guyana government has been spending on infrastructure and social services. And on keeping voters happy.

CASH GRANTS

Last October it gave cash grants of nearly US$500 to each adult Guyanese, which was also open to those living abroad once they returned home to collect it.

What was surprising about the election, however, was the collapse of the PNC’s vote, the old Forbes Burnham party that dominated government from the 1960s into the 1990s, but has oscillated since then, with the PPP having more time in power.

The PNC and its partners, which are supported primarily by Afro-Guyanese, got roughly 18 per cent of the votes (78,000), a slump of 30 per cent from 2020. It will have 12 seats in the National Assembly. After the previous election, it had 31, just two shy of the PPP.

So for the first time since it was formed in 1957, the PNC will be neither part of the Guyana government nor the official opposition. That of itself is a seismic development in the context of Guyanese politics.

But the even greater surprise is to whom the PNC appears to have lost its votes – not, it seems, primarily to the PPP. The defections were mostly to the upstart We Invest in Nationhood (WIN) party, which was launched in June by a wealthy, flashy 38-year-old, Indo-Guyanese businessman, Azruddin Mohamed. Mr Mohamed was once considered close to the PPP.

There is important context to Mr Mohamed. He and his father, Nazar Mohamed, operate a number of seemingly successful firms, including the flagship Mohamed Enterprises, which mines and trades gold.

June 2024, however, the United States sanctioned the Mohameds, accusing them of bribery and corruption, including under-reporting gold exports that cost the Guyana government US$50 million in unpaid taxes. The Americans, as part of the action, also sanctioned the permanent secretary in the Home Affairs ministry, Mae Toussaint Jr Thomas.

Additionally, Guyana’s Customs authorities have brought a case against the younger Mr Mohamed for allegedly under-invoicing an expensive Ferrari sports car he imported into the country.

OPPOSITION LEADER

These developments, notwithstanding, Mr Mohamed’s party – which offered a populist platform that included lowering VAT taxes and renegotiating Guyana’s profiting-sharing and royalties agreement with ExxonMobil for oil – won a quarter of the electoral votes. WIN will have 16 seats in the assembly and Mr Mohamed will be the official opposition leader.

This development will likely cause diplomatic uncertainties between Guyana and the United States, which will require delicate management by Georgetown.

However, the PNC may have to be even more nimble as it faces a potentially existential crisis. While the PPP held onto voters in its traditional belts, the PNC tumbled in Region 4, the coastal urban region, including the capital Georgetown, that has historically proved a rich vein of ballots.

Last week, the PNC/APNU received 46,956 in the region, against 87,56 for the PPP, which won the district for the first time in history. Notably, WIN got 41,607 votes. A gaggle of small parties, including an off-shoot of the PNC received nearly 5,000 votes.

It is not clear what all this means – whether, as some believe, or hope, it represents a first crack in Guyanese ethnic politics, notwithstanding the personality behind the rupture.

These may be significant times for Jamaica. They are worth watching.