Editorial | Prioritise earthquake readiness

Especially after the ruin left by Hurricane Melissa last October, it is understandable that, in the context of disaster preparedness, the attention of most Jamaicans is on hurricanes.

The authorities, however, can’t afford not to be as deeply invested in preparing for earthquakes. For while it has been nearly a century and a quarter since the 1907 earthquake that killed over a 1,000 people and shook the island, another big one, the experts warn, is inevitable.

While the technology can’t predict when that will happen, it is far more than capable of telling that Jamaica is almost constantly faced with earthquake activity. Last year, for example, the Earthquake Unit (EQU) at The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona recorded 402 quakes, a decrease of around 33 per cent on the previous year’s figure – which recorded 600 earthquakes.

Of last year’s quakes, 122 were classified as near events affecting Cayman Islands, Cuba and Haiti, while 280 were spread across Jamaica.

Near events, which can include foreshocks and aftershocks, can pose a danger depending on their magnitude, proximity, and local conditions such as building construction. While small tremors may be harmless, they still are seismic risk and a potential for a larger, more damaging event.

CONCERNING

The inevitability of earthquakes, and that another big one will happen in Jamaica’s geographic location, is concerning, to say the least.

Jamaica lies within a complex zone of faulting that forms the boundary between the Gonâve microplate and the Caribbean plate. The island’s uplift, faulting, and seismic hazards (like earthquakes) are a direct result of the complex shearing and compressional forces from the relative movements of the Caribbean, North American, and Gonâve plates.

In the event science and Jamaica’s circumstances make a compelling case for a comprehensive approach to disaster preparedness and planning – one in which earthquakes, as much as other catastrophes, is prioritised.

In other words, disaster preparation must encompass meteorological, hydrological and geological events.

Happily, post-Hurricane Melissa, there are already discussions around strengthening the island’s building codes and enforcing construction standards, especially for critical infrastructure.

The Government should also consider:

• Consistent public education campaigns, to include periodic drills, and other facets of earthquake response, like knowing safe zones, evacuation routes and how to secure utilities

• Strengthening institutional capacity building at the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) and related agencies. There needs to be seamless inter-agency coordination exercises and investments in early warning and response logistics.

• Incorporating earthquake scenarios into national

hazard maps and disaster response plans, using seismic hazard assessments and modelling tools.

• Regular review and simulation of disaster plans, including schools, hospitals and community centres, to test readiness and identify gaps.

CUES

Further, cues must be taken from studies like the 2025 Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands Long-term National Seismic Hazard Model, which has refined fault modelling and new ground-motion analyses, offering a clearer picture of long-term earthquake risk in the northern Caribbean plate boundary region.

This updated model effort, though focused on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, reflects advances in hazard mapping and probabilistic assessment that should inform Jamaica’s approach to seismic planning. It shows how fault geometry, seismicity rates and ground-motion probability can be translated into resilience priorities.

Additionally, there are lessons to be learnt with shared experiences, and the need to address an existential risk shared by CARICOM countries. Damage on the scale of Haiti, which caused estimated US$7 billion and US$14 billion in direct losses and equivalent to over 100 per cent of the country’s GDP, can cripple economies and cause major setbacks.

The 2025 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, estimated the global economic impact of natural emergencies – earthquakes, landslides and floods – to be around US$200 billion annually.

This figure was “only a fraction of the real costs”, said Jenty Kirsch-Wood, head of global risk analysis for UNDRR. “The true cost is closer to $2.3 trillion.”

The report highlighted that a person born in 1990 has a 63 per cent chance of experiencing a once-in-a-century catastrophic flood in their lifetime. But, for a child born in 2025, that probability rises to 86 per cent.

“The cost of extreme weather is not measured solely in destroyed infrastructure, but also in lost years of health, education and opportunity. Healthcare, education, and employment are increasingly disrupted by emergencies, leading to higher national debt and slower recovery – particularly in already vulnerable countries,” the report warned.

Earthquake readiness also intersects with other hazards, especially post-Hurricane Melissa devastation, with increased landslide risks, should an earthquake strike.

Placing it at the core of a national disaster strategy will save lives, protect infrastructure and reduce the social and economic costs, should any major event strike. Infrastructure that withstands storms may still be vulnerable seismic activity. It is critical that a diversified preparedness strategy that prioritises seismic risk be implemented.

In 2024, Professor Simon Mitchell, who teaches sedimentary geology at The UWI, Mona, warned that Jamaica will face a big earthquake but couldn’t say when. “... it could be in the very near future or it could still be years away, or decades away,” he told Nationwide News Network then.

In any event, Jamaica and the region needs to be better prepared for earthquakes and interconnected hazards of climate change and natural variability.