Mark Wignall | Which party deserves the win
Two months out from when the next election is constitutionally due in Jamaica, neither the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) nor the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) has identified a set of burning issues, or one big, pressing matter, that will impel it to comfortably canter to the winning post like Usain Bolt on a surefire win.
Two months ago, a Blue Dot/Nationwide poll provided numbers indicating that the JLP was likely to win the next election.
But, let’s back up. Weeks ago a sizeable cache of arms and ammunition showed up on the docks, destination: incoming. In the 1970s and 1980s when cocaine was illicitly shipped by powerful cartels from Colombia and a few other countries in South America, the shipments which were eventually headed to the US mainland were done in batches. Some batches were specifically ‘informed on’ and given up to the snare of the regional security apparatus. They were ‘sacrificed’ just so that other batches could run the gauntlet and safely reach the destination.
The cartels were bathing in money and could easily afford the great ruse.
Why do we believe that in moving arms and ammunition to Jamaica, big money players could not have been into the same game as the druggists of our past? I say that because of the recent regularity of gunplay leading up to the elections. Yu (give up) ketch one, nuff get chu.
At this juncture, I am not suggesting that the sporadic gunplay and deaths happening now are in the same mould as those of the ‘70s and ‘80s. Those of the past tended to be linked to politicians crassly handing out gully contracts to well-known violent thugs who surrounded themselves with armed young men willing to kill in support of the contracts and the weekly cash.
When I pose the question in the column about which party deserves a win, I’m pushing more than the idea of whether the ruling JLP, since 2016, has made life better for the community, the household, the family unit and the likely voter, or, is the PNP in a better position to convince sections of the electorate that it is more suited to achieve that set of wishes?
Corruption still exists but, without the crudity of the former years. Now, the armed criminals find their path and the politician ups his game. In the end, though, the typical Jamaican always supports the police using extreme violence to get the better of uncontrollable criminals.
UNDERSTANDING THE PNP VOTER
The person likely to vote PNP will tell you that Mark Golding is well off financially. They will say he made his money through Dehring, Bunting, and Golding in the 1990s and from his law practice. They will preach to you that he is not in politics to make money and that he entered politics because he genuinely wants to serve the people of Jamaica.
He wants to improve the lives of most poor Jamaicans, they say. He cannot be bought, they will swear; he is not susceptible to corruption. They will conclude that, in all instances, he has noble intentions. So, hail Mary. slip me a prayer and let me sip the coloured juice.
The PNP voter will tell you with conviction that the JLP’s Holness has a reckless habit of making promises he does not keep. They will say he promised to enact legislation to impeach MPs who were corrupt, engaged in criminal activity and were not performing. They will point out that, to date ,there has not even been a draft of such legislation, nine years on.
FIGURING OUT THE JLP VOTER
There are two constituencies that I drive through much more than others. North Central St Andrew where posters of the JLP’s Delano Seiveright constantly remind me and others that he is the definite choice come election day. The other is North West St Andrew with Duane Smith.
One factor that tends to stand out for me, more for its absence than for any political permanence, is the extent to which the JLP scoring a third straight term (should it win in 2025) hardly enters conversation among likely JLP voters as a voting pull. Or, am I reading it wrong?
The man or woman whose tendency skews towards giving the JLP another vote at the general election views Golding as a political trick. They have not identified a list of issues that the opposition leader would be better in performing than Andrew Holness. As expected, they tend to ridicule Golding than question his abilities to step into the role as prime minister and perform to the same extent as Holness.
The likely JLP supporters at all educational levels will willingly sit and speak of how Holness has transformed much of rural Jamaica into the ‘go-to’ spot to visit during his run and the extent to which he has placed a set of young politicians into ideal positions to be ready to handle Jamaica in the age of artificial intelligence and in navigating the newer needs for education.
More than anything else, the likely JLP supporter will tell you that Holness has performed well in laying out all levels of infrastructure in Jamaica but has unfinished business especially in tackling damaged community roads, some with CHEC assistance. They will say it is the duty of his supporters to provide him with the added space and time to conduct an even bigger job than the one he has carried out so far.
The obvious bugbear in this campaign, for me, is the poor state of minor arterial roads across Jamaica. If the JLP, with governmental power and state assistance from China, cannot make an immediate and visible, proper fix with them, how likely is it that an anxiety-filled PNP with no power can make promises to the satisfaction of an impatient electorate in no need of another ‘pothole-free’ puddle?
The PM and his team cannot avoid adding significant negatives to the rundown state of our public health facilities and how senior citizens are shuffled around during excessive waiting time. Much of it borders on being scandalous.
During the long, unbroken run of the PNP’s P.J. Patterson (1992-2006), one factor more than others came up just before another election win. ‘P.J. deserves another chance.’ Should sufficient numbers of JLP supporters adopt that mode with Holness, it is quite likely that he will be re-elected.
But, does his overall performance warrant another shot at power? For me, I cannot see Mark Golding topping Andrew Holness.
Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com