PNP or JLP?
• Political analysts weigh in as election battle heats up• Both parties confident of victory
Published:Monday | March 10, 2025 | 12:08 AMSashana Small/Staff Reporter
Although Jamaica’s two main political parties are already claiming victory ahead of the upcoming general election, Dr Christopher Charles believes that the People’s National Party (PNP) will defeat the governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) at the national polls.
“It will be a close election, but the PNP, since late last year, has been constantly ahead of the JLP by several percentage points outside the margin of error. I expect the PNP to win the general election,” the professor of political and social psychology at the University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, told The Gleaner yesterday.
Charles was referencing public opinion polls conducted over the last year.
Speaking on TVJ’s programme All Angles last Wednesday, the general secretaries of the PNP and the JLP each expressed confidence that their party will be given the mandate to govern Jamaica for the next five years in the upcoming general election, due by September.
The JLP’s general secretary, Dr Horace Chang, predicted that his party will win the election with “at least 35 seats comfortably”, while the PNP’s general secretary, Dr Dayton Campbell, declared, “We think we will win this election, and we think we will get at least 38 to 39 seats”.
In the last general election in 2020, the JLP won 49 of the 63 seats, leaving the PNP with only 14. However, Professor Charles pointed to the 2007 and 2016 general elections, noting that not only were they close, but they were won by the party in opposition.
In the 2007 polls, the JLP defeated the PNP 33-27. In the 2011 polls, the PNP took back the reins, winning 42 seats to the JLP’s 21. But in 2016, the PNP was once again narrowly defeated by the JLP, this time by a single seat (32-31).
“The incumbent (the Government) has more work to do with the electorate,” Charles pointed out.
Looking at the results of the recent RJRGLEANER Communications Group-commissioned public-opinion poll by Don Anderson’s Market Research Services Limited, the professor quizzed, “If they have done as well in government as they say they have, why are they behind the opposition party in the Don Anderson polls?”
In the survey conducted between January 30 and February 12 of this year, 1,201 registered voters aged 18 and over from across all parishes were asked ‘Which party would you vote for if elections were called today?’ Of those polled, 35.4 per cent said the PNP, while 30.7 per cent said the JLP, leaving a gap of 4.7 per cent. The survey revealed that 33.9 per cent of the respondents were uncommitted.
The margin of error is plus/minus 3 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
When the survey was conducted in September last year, the PNP held a 39.3 per cent lead over the JLP’s 30.2 per cent – a gap of 9.1 per cent – when voters were asked the same question. The uncommitted at the time stood at 30.5 per cent.
In the recent poll, the same voters, however, gave the JLP a 2 per cent edge over the PNP on who would do a better job of managing the country over the next five years.
When asked, ‘Which party do you feel would do a better job running the country over the next five years?’, 34 per cent responded in favour of the JLP, while 32 per cent picked the PNP. At the same time, 21 per cent of the respondents were not sure, and 13 per cent said none of them.
EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGNING
Stressing the importance of effective campaigning when elections are close, Charles said both the JLP and the PNP must work to mobilise their bases and to connect with uncommitted voters through “well-articulated, transformative policy ideas”.
“This means deploying effective campaign ads that cause voters to feel the issues by speaking directly to their lived experiences over the election cycle and their future expectations,” he told The Gleaner.
Meanwhile, political analyst Damion Gordon believes that as the date for the general election draws closer, the messaging from the political parties will become increasingly populist in nature, aiming to swing the undecided voters in their favour.
He said the governing JLP will be campaigning around its achievements in office over the last nine years, such as record unemployment of 3.5 per cent, the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach a historic low of 68.8 per cent by the end of the 2024-2025 in March, and the recent reduction in crime compared to last year.
On the other hand, the PNP’s campaign will focus on countering the JLP’s messaging, Gordon said.
“The PNP’s message will highlight that people are generally dissatisfied with the type of jobs that are being created, their income levels. That people are generally dissatisfied with the state of our essential services, and they are still concerned about the integrity and character of the Government,” Gordon told The Gleaner.
Charles is of a similar view, noting that economics tend to be a deciding factor for voters. He said the JLP government has to “explain why, despite the low unemployment rate, people’s lives have not been significantly better and the economy has not grown much”.
The Opposition PNP, on the other hand, he said, has to “demonstrate, convincingly, how its policies and programmes will achieve significant and sustained economic growth to improve the lives of Jamaicans”.
VOTERS’ CHALLENGE
Gordon, who is a lecturer in the Department of Government at The UWI, Mona, pointed out that although public perception of the Government may not be very positive, it does not necessarily translate to support for the Opposition.
So the PNP “needs to present itself as a credible alternative to the Government. It needs to be able to articulate a set of ideas and policies and alternatives that are viable, clear, specific and measurable”, he pointed out.
“The challenge that voters face is deciding whether ‘we should stick with a government that we know and that we don’t think has done an awful job or take the risk of electing a new government’,” he said.
Gordon added that the PNP will also have to put focus on engaging both local and diasporic stakeholders if they want to convince the electorate that they are prepared for governance.
“The importance of visibility, voice, and ideas must not be understated,” he said as Jamaica prepares to head to the polls within the next six months.