Tightening up

With just weeks left within which the next general election is due to be announced, much-anticipated party standings put the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) in a close race as the PNP holds a three percentage point lead that lies on the edge of the margin of error.

The result of the latest RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson poll shows the PNP’s lead slipping from a high of nine percentage points in a similar survey conducted in September last year.

In the latest poll, conducted between May and June 2025, 32.6 per cent of individuals said they would vote for the PNP, while 29.6 said they would put their ‘X’ beside the bell. Another 37.8 per cent of potential voters said they were either “not sure yet” or “not voting”.

According to Anderson, “Given the closeness of the current voter support between the two parties, there is some degree of variation within the demographic groups with regard to this support. The PNP’s support comes mainly from males, 40 per cent, as against 28 per cent for the JLP; amongst the 55-64 age group, 39 per cent against 28 per cent for the JLP; and amongst persons in the 25-34 age group, 31 per cent saying they will vote for the PNP, compared to 27 per cent for the JLP.”

In his analysis, the pollster said, “The Opposition PNP has maintained a steady lead in the polls since it narrowly won the popular vote in the local government elections in February last year. That lead moved to seven percentage points two months later in April 2024, and again increased to nine [percentage points] in the September 2024 national poll. However, in two polls conducted since the start of 2025, that lead by the PNP has been cut to 5.4 percentage points in February 2025 and has been further reduced to three percentage points in the recently concluded poll, fieldwork for which was completed between the 16th of May and the 7th of June 2025.”

Dr Christopher Charles, University of the West Indies professor of political and social psychology, said the results give the Opposition an electoral edge, but affirmed what he has long believed: the general election will be a very close contest.

He noted that in polling terms, when one party repeatedly leads by small but consistent margins, even within the statistical margin of error, it often signals a likely victory.

“The same thing occurred in the November 2024 US presidential election, where the polls showed a close race between [Kamala] Harris and [Donald] Trump, with the majority of the polls consistently showing Trump having a few more points within the margin of error (and some more than the margin of error), which was suggestive of a likely Trump win, which is what occurred. These four poll findings are also consistent with the PNP getting a larger share of the popular vote in the local government elections in early 2024,” Charles told The Gleaner.

Looking at the demographics, Anderson noted that the JLP’s support comes mainly from females, with “31 per cent saying they will vote for the JLP, compared to 27 per cent for the PNP.

“[Further] amongst the 45-54 age group, where the JLP has a four percentage point lead over the PNP, and also amongst the younger voters, where 26 per cent say they intend to vote for the JLP as against 22 per cent for the PNP.”

He noted, “This latter age cohort, the youngest voters, have shown some degree of volatility in polls conducted in the last year, swinging between the JLP and the PNP. This is against the background of the last five years, where they have tended to support the JLP more often.”

Among individuals who said they would vote for the PNP, the anti-incumbency sentiment was the strongest factor at 29.1 per cent, followed by party loyalty at 24.2 per cent. Another 22.2 per cent felt the the PNP should be given a chance to govern.

At the same time, among those who said they would vote for the JLP, 22.9 per cent said it was because the governing party was doing a good job while 22.3 per cent said their main reason was party loyalty. Another 21.3 per cent said they wanted to see the government continue the projects it has started.

Diehard support split between parties

The diehard support among voters 65 years and over, who have traditionally been strongly in favour of the PNP, was this time around divided, with one percentage point separating them in their voter intent, with the advantage still to the PNP.

“It is interesting to note that despite the intensification of the political activity by both parties during 2025, that actual numbers that say “will vote” for either party has fallen off. The PNP support/voter intent has fallen off by 2.1 percentage points since the last poll in February, while the JLP has seen a smaller fall off of less than one [percentage point],” Anderson noted.

Volatility

The pollster believes it is “counter-intuitive, as it would normally be expected that increased political activity would result in a higher level of commitment to vote for one party or the other”.

“In reality, what has taken place is that as the campaign has been revved up, this has created a heightened degree of uncertainty amongst the voters as to which side to support and, for the moment, more are now sitting on the fence, uncertain as to which party to support. It simply means that the undecided [voters] have grown since the last poll conducted in February. Note that the JLP’s support has remained roughly steady at 30 per cent, whilst the decline has been largely with the PNP.”

Beyond the numbers, Charles said tensions within the JLP in settling on several prospective candidates may be undermining its campaign and affecting voter confidence. There were tensions in Clarendon North Western, Westmoreland Western, Clarendon Central and St Andrew North Central, some resulting in public quarrels.

This, he said, contrasted against a seemingly more united PNP, whose candidate selection process was relatively smooth, but not without their own problems in Kingston Central, where formerly tipped candidate Lawrence Rowe was replaced with retired senior cop Steve McGregor.

Political commentator and publisher Lloyd B Smith was more succinct.

“Both parties have failed so far to excite the electorate,” he told The Gleaner yesterday.

“At the same time, the fact that the PNP remains in striking distance given the margin of error would suggest strongly that the incumbency syndrome is working in its favour, which should be worrying to the JLP. If this trend continues, the country can expect a very low voter turnout, which would tend to favour the PNP, especially if the youth vote does not live up to expectations for the JLP,” said Smith, a former MP elected on a PNP ticket.

Getting young voters to the polling station is very difficult, Smith stressed.

“It is no secret that it is harder to get out the youth vote, which is why the spectre of vote-buying may well rear its ugly head. In the final analysis, while the PNP may be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel, the JLP should be worried, given its massive public relations campaign, which has so far failed to give Holness a competitive edge,” he explained.

With each party expected to go into high campaign gear, Smith said both parties will gain some momentum, more so the JLP, as the PNP President Mark Golding’s popularity may remain an Achilles heel for the party.

Holness has a 7.5 percentage point lead over Golding in favourability, but Golding has a slight 0.2 percentage point better net favourability rating, according to the latest poll.

Over the period of the poll, 1,033 persons age 18 years and over, who are registered to vote, were interviewed. All parishes were covered in the sample and the margin of error was plus or minus three per cent at the 95 confidence level.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com