US$542m fallout

WESTERN BUREAU:

The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) could lose more than US$542 million annually under the United States’ newly imposed reciprocal tariffs, a blow that threatens to unravel decades of export growth, particularly in agriculture, food processing, and apparel.

That was the stark warning delivered yesterday morning by Dr Patrick Antoine, chief technical director of the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO), during a high-level presentation at a CPSO-Private Sector Organisation (PSOJ) Business Forum held at Sandals Montego Bay in St James.

The meeting was staged on the sidelines of the 49th Regular Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of CARICOM.

Antoine’s presentation was the first public disclosure of the country-by-country and product-level impact of the tariffs, which were implemented earlier this year under the US’ new trade recalibration. Until now, the detailed data had only been circulated among CARICOM leaders.

“Trinidad and Tobago will be the hardest hit in terms of export losses,” Antoine said, “followed by The Bahamas, Haiti, Guyana, and then other member states. For the region as a whole, the projected annual loss at the 10 per cent tariff rate is over half a billion US dollars. That’s not just a headline. That’s real jobs and livelihoods.”

MOST IMPACTED SECTORS

The analysis, conducted by the CPSO with support from CARICOM technical teams and the World Bank, examined hundreds of tariff lines across member states. Among the most impacted sectors are agriculture, seafood (especially crustaceans and frozen fish), textiles, sugar, and base metals.

In Guyana’s case, for example, a scenario where tariffs rise to 38 per cent on some goods could result in an additional US$27.9 million in losses beyond the already projected US$89.7 million.

Antoine also revealed that Jamaica has 128 product lines in the US market that fall into the ‘fast-growth-high-demand’ category. These products face an average export revenue reduction of 8.6 per cent, a hit that could still be absorbed if margins remain above 30 per cent, he noted.

“It’s important to understand that all is not lost,” Antoine said. “If we can drive down inefficiencies, like the high cost of port delays and logistics, we could actually overcompensate for some of the losses.”

The US tariffs come at a critical moment for CARICOM as the region prepares its biennial submission to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) for continued access under the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI). The deadline for member states to submit formal comments is July 16, and Antoine urged governments to act swiftly and use CPSO data to support their case.

However, Antoine cautioned that simply asking for CBI preservation is not enough.

“The preferences we’ve enjoyed under the CBI have been essential, but they don’t cover all the products we now export competitively,” he said. “We are calling for a ‘CBI Plus’ framework, one that includes new high-performing products outside the traditional eligibility list.”

To make the case, the CPSO has identified 27 fast-growing products, including coffee, uncooked pasta, and rum, that clearly benefit from preferential access under the CBI. The data also shows that Jamaica has increased the number of tariff lines under which it exports CBI-eligible goods, rising from 86 in 2007 to 104 in 2024. Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago have seen similar growth.

Of particular note is the agri-food sector, which Antoine described as “both the most vulnerable and the most promising”. Between 2007 and 2024, that sector grew from US$99 million to US$224 million, representing a compound annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent.

“If we’re seeing strong export growth in a sector that is now among the most vulnerable under the new US tariffs, then our priority must be to protect that growth. Not just for Jamaica, but for the entire region,” he stressed.

The presentation also examined trade inefficiencies and sourcing risks, revealing that 10 per cent to 20 per cent of CARICOM imports pass through, but are not sourced from, the US. Antoine said there are cost-saving opportunities in sourcing those goods elsewhere, especially with greater private-sector coordination.

“This isn’t about turning away from the US, but about building resilience,” he added. “We need to deepen regional supply chains and develop a clearer CARICOM response.”

The CPSO is also working with partners such as the US Business Council, Tropical Shipping, and the Atlantic Council to prepare a joint submission for early 2025 advocating for a modernised trade relationship that reflects the realities of today’s Caribbean export profile.

“This is the first time we’re presenting this level of analysis publicly,” Antoine said, “and the results are sobering, but they also show us where the opportunities are. If we act quickly and strategically, we can protect the gains we’ve made and position ourselves for much more.”

janet.silvera@gleanerjm.com