Political parties’ paths to victory

Uncommitted voters are expected to determine the outcome of parliamentary elections weeks from now, as corruption, the homicide rate, and the status of the Jamaican economy dominate national issues, two political analysts believe.

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has been campaigning on what it describes as its record of achievements, chief among them the significant lowering of the country’s homicide, poverty and unemployment rates, macroeconomic stability, including bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio, and a boom in infrastructural development.

Still, cost of living remains a sore point for many Jamaicans, even as inflation in the country measured 3.8 per cent for the 12 months to June 2025, falling below the Bank of Jamaica’s target range of 4.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent and marking a period of relative price stability.

However, the cumulative rise in prices since the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020 remains steep — hovering around 40 per cent. Essentials, however, like bread, have surged by more than 65 per cent, straining household budgets.

Added to that, while most working Jamaicans have not seen equivalent salary growth to offset these costs, politicians’ salaries have more than doubled, fuelling public frustration over the widening gap between earnings and the real cost of living.

The Opposition People’s National Party (PNP), meanwhile, has promised to introduce several policies it said will make the lives of Jamaicans better, among them a national school meal programme, a $500 daily transportation subsidy for needy students, a scholarship for the first child in every family who qualifies for tertiary education, student loan debt forgiveness, an agricultural fund for farmers, a $1-billion disability fund, and a $500,000 housing grant for young working Jamaicans, among other things.

The Opposition party has not clearly outlined its plans to fund these initiatives.

Politics of integrity

Dr Christopher Charles, professor of political and social psychology at The University of the West Indies, Mona, believes that the election can turn for the PNP if it can appeal to and convince uncommitted voters that the time for the politics of integrity has arrived.

According to Charles, the PNP will need to convince the uncommitted that it is the party of integrity that will not attack the Integrity Commission (IC) and will further empower it to do its work without fear or favour.

Conversely, the professor said the JLP can turn the election if it can convince uncommitted voters that Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness “is not corrupt” amid the issues raised in IC Director of Information and Complaints Craig Beresford’s affidavit about him.

Holness, who has maintained that he is not involved in any wrongdoing, has been at loggerheads with the IC over the non-certification of his statutory declaration.

The Supreme Court on July 31 rejected Holness’ bid to strike out what he described as “scandalous” portions of a 108-page March affidavit filed by Beresford.

Holness was successful in getting the court to order the IC to disclose certain documents prepared by officials connected to the probe of his financial affairs.

For political analyst Damion Gordon, voters are using a rubric to assess government effectiveness rather than a single issue per se.

“This is the reason why the Government’s claim of strong economic stewardship has not necessarily translated to strong positive public perception, because citizens can easily point to other unmet expectations and have even grown cynical of aggregate macroeconomic indicators. The Opposition is also struggling to connect with undecided or uncommitted voters in this generalised climate of distrust and apathy towards political institutions,” the university lecturer said.

He said the country’s two main political parties, due to historical antecedents, are finding it extremely difficult to penetrate the virtually impenetrable wall of distrust, cynicism and apathy that many voters have erected around themselves.

‘Ideas are falling on deaf ears’

Further, Gordon said politicians’ words, promises and transformative ideas are falling on deaf ears and hardly resonate beyond duty-bound party loyalists.

“Good policy ideas that emerge from the political platforms and documents are often negated by inconsistencies in the conduct and pronouncements of specific politicians aligned to both parties. Many voters are in retreat and are not showing up to spaces dedicated to political engagement and exchange. Sometimes the message is good, but voters don’t trust the messenger,” said Gordon.

However, Charles believes the PNP can turn the election if it can convince some of the uncommitted voters that the “short-sighted homicide analysis that looks at the 2024 homicide rate against the 2023 rate is being used as a smokescreen to hide the fact [that]homicide is still relatively very high”.

Charles said the long-term view, over many years, shows that homicide is still a major problem and the country has a far way to go; because in 1962, the homicide rate was 3.7 per 100,000 and in 2024 it was 40.2 per 100,000, an increase of approximately1,100 per cent.

He said the JLP can turn the election if its public relations machine can convince uncommitted voters that the homicide analysis of this year versus last year is the best way to measure returning Jamaica to being a safe society as in 1962.

At the same time, he said Jamaica has had a flatline economy with marginal economic growth since 1962, so people’s lives have not improved economically in any significant way.

“The people are hurting economically. The PNP can turn the election if it can convince some uncommitted voters that, unlike the Government, it can move prosperity from just a word to lived economic experiences with the right macroeconomic management. The JLP can turn the election if it can convince the uncommitted voters that its touted economic achievements have been positively impactful,” said Charles.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com