Buchanan plots historic upset against PM Holness

Paul Buchanan has once again stepped into the political ring, hoping to create the biggest upset in this general election by wresting St Andrew West Central from Prime Minister and Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Dr Andrew Holness.

The People’s National Party (PNP) standard-bearer, who pulled off a surprise victory in St Andrew West Rural in 2011, has embarked on a political daredevil act in a seat Holness has held for nearly three decades.

“It’s a tough ask,” Buchanan concedes, even as he insists that he can topple the JLP leader.

If he achieves the feat, Buchanan would become the second person to beat the leader of either the PNP or JLP in the country’s history. Norman Manley was defeated by the JLP’s Edward Fagan in St Andrew Eastern.

St Andrew West Central is made up of three divisions – Molynes Gardens, Seivwright Gardens, and Olympic Gardens. While the PNP has traditionally been dominant in Molynes Gardens, the JLP has maintained a firm grip on both Seivwright Gardens and Olympic Gardens.

Buchanan is banking heavily on a strong showing in Molynes Gardens, but electoral data suggests the odds are stacked against him.

“Over the years, we have underperformed as the electors are not coming out, but, once I win Molynes, I will win the constituency,” he said.

Between 2007 and 2016, the JLP steadily grew its support in the division, moving from 1,496 votes (31.7 per cent) in 2007 to 2,137 votes (36.7 per cent) in 2016. Over the same period, the PNP’s numbers slipped from 68.3 per cent to 63.3 per cent.

In Olympic Gardens, Holness’ political base, the JLP has tightened its grip over the past three elections, climbing from 67.9 per cent of the vote in 2007 to a commanding 71.5 per cent in 2016. By contrast, the PNP, despite modest gains in 2011, slid back to just 28.5 per cent in 2016.

SOMETHING FRESH

“Holness is strong in Olympic and I don’t expect to change that,” Buchanan admitted. “And we have steadily lost more and more ground in Seivwright Gardens, ironically named after a PNP founding father, William Seivwright.”

Still, Buchanan believes he brings something fresh to the table. He argues that, after 27 years as MP, Holness has little to show beyond the Olympic Gardens Police Station. His vision is to transform the psyche and culture of a constituency long plagued by violence, poverty, and neglect.

The urban constituency has some gritty parts, including Tower Hill and Olympic Gardens where crime has stained its legacy and remains a tough challenge for the police. He plans to use technology to drive the transformation of the area.

“Technology is eluding our children, it is eluding Jamaica if we don’t move fast. So I want to lift the technology level here. I want to not just make the place safer but kinder,” he said.

“None of my colleagues come here, you know, I can’t ask them to come for a walk with me. They hear about Tower Hill and gunmen and that is all. We want to change the complexion of the place through the primacy of education.”

Buchanan knows the weight of the challenge. He was coaxed out of political retirement by the PNP president after losing his West Rural seat to Juliet Cuthbert-Flynn in 2016. Before that, he had stunned many in 2011 by defeating two-term JLP MP Andrew Gallimore.

Now, in what may be the toughest fight of his career, Buchanan insists he is ready to go toe-to-toe with the prime minister in his own backyard.

“There is unfinished work here,” he said. “This one is for the children. I see myself as transformational,” added Buchanan, who dreams of establishing a robotics institute in the constituency.

“We have to change the culture of the constituency. Young people don’t go for jobs and put this address. The stain of violence and gunmanship and a cycle of poverty exist here, despite the prime minister being the MP for 27 years,” the challenger said.

editorial@gleanerjm.com