‘We’ve never experienced this before’

Jamaicans are being urged to brace for the worst as Hurricane Melissa intensifies south of the island and is forecast to make landfall as a Category 4 system early this week.

At a media briefing on Saturday morning, Evan Thompson, chief meteorologist at the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, said the system is strengthening rapidly and moving slowly toward the island’s southern coast.

“It has been a long few days and lots of activity and of course now we are faced by the information of a tropical storm that’s rapidly developing and moving closer and closer to Jamaica,” Thompson said.

He explained that as of the 11 a.m. update, the storm was positioned at 16.5° north and 75.1° west, moving only about two miles per hour over the past 24 hours.

The system was shortly after upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane.

“At this time, it is expected to be a major hurricane because what we’re expecting after today is that there will be rapid intensification of this system,” he said. “That’s a phase that some of these hurricanes go through, especially in these days of climate change.”

He said Melissa is projected to make impact with Jamaica’s southern coastline, south of Clarendon, by Tuesday morning, and that the system will produce heavy rainfall, flooding, and strong winds across the island.

He said rainfall amounts could reach 15 to 25 inches, leading to “catastrophic” and “life-threatening” flooding.

“When we talk about 15 to 25 inches, this is much more than you can even imagine to experience. This is a major rain-producing event. It is considered to be producing catastrophic flooding. In some cases, they say, life-threatening.

“We have already heard about some lives being lost in Haiti and this is because of this system. So we must take every precaution when it comes to the rainfall. If you are in any area that is flood-prone, a low-lying area, you must find a way to build a relationship with somebody that will help you to move from that area or move to those shelters as soon as they are open and make sure that you are able to ride out this whole system. Now, it’s going to be here for a long time ... lots of rainfall and it will be with us for a good five days or so. Heavy rainfall, increasing wind speeds.”

Thompson confirmed that the storm is projected to reach Category 4 intensity.

“It will likely decrease [in intensity] as it moves toward the north coast, but a Category 4 hurricane is more than we have experienced before moving across the island. Gilbert was a Category 3 hurricane when it moved over Jamaica. It became Category 4 when it was heading to the Cayman Islands. Ivan was a Category 4 hurricane, yes, but the centre did not pass over the island. Beryl was also a Category 4 hurricane, but it also did not impact us with a landfall. It was a direct hit because we got the heavy rainfall and the associated weather, but it did not move over the island in terms of the centre of the system. We have not had this experience before, so it’s important for us to consider this as an extraordinary situation.”

Storm surges are a

real potential

He also cautioned that storm surge along the southern coastline could reach up to eight feet or more, citing memories of Hurricane Ivan’s destruction of Caribbean Terrace in 2004.

“Storm surges are a real potential,” he said. “If you are living anywhere near a coastline it is important that you pay attention.”

Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie said he would be writing to Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness with a recommendation for the mandatory evacuation of vulnerable communities ahead of Tropical Storm Melissa.

McKenzie, who was also speaking at the special press briefing at Jamaica House, said provisions in the Disaster Risk Management Act allow for “compulsory evacuation”.

He said it is advisable that persons do not remain in these communities, singling out Rocky Point in Clarendon as well as the St Andrew communities of Taylor Land in Bull Bay, New Haven and Riverton City and Port Royal in Kingston, among others.

Thompson urged Jamaicans to take the warnings seriously.

“Today is your last day to prepare for this hurricane. If you have not done anything yet, don’t think that you will be able to go out tomorrow and it will be easy to go and get things done because that might not actually be a reality.”

Despite the grave projections, he ended with words of encouragement.

“I don’t want you to think there is no hope,” Thompson said. “Today is your last day to prepare… but at the same time believing that you will ride this through, that you will get over it… The sun will shine again and you will be okay.”