2024: A year of drama, setting stage for general election

In 2024, the political temperature in Jamaica saw a dramatic shift, particularly surrounding the announcement of the long-overdue local government elections (LGE) scheduled for February 26. This event sparked a whirlwind of debates and heightened tensions, foreshadowing the more significant general election looming in 2025. The atmosphere was charged with political rhetoric, as both major parties, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP), sought to define their narratives following the results of the LGE.

The LGEs saw the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) winning the majority of seats in St Thomas, Portland, St Ann, Trelawny, St James, St Elizabeth and Clarendon.

The People’s National Party (PNP) won majority of the seats in St Catherine, Westmoreland, Manchester, St Mary and Hanover. The party also won the Portmore mayoral race.

The Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation was tied, with the PNP securing the popular vote and the mayorship.

“That was an interesting result because the JLP won the parish count, which is how winners are determined winners, but the PNP won bigger, winning more divisions as well as the popular vote,” noted Dr Christopher Charles, a University of the West Indies (UWI) professor of political and social psychology. “And then they both took a post-modern approach where they both generated their own truths about the outcome.”

In the midst of the results conundrum, Charles said, the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) became a wimp.

“If you are [a supporter of the] JLP, you said the JLP won, and if you are [a supporter of the] PNP, you said the PNP won. Whereas the EOJ, who should be the institution to determine the winner, and make that declaration quickly, became a wimp and shirked its responsibility. It sent out some vague letter just saying who got what, without saying who the winner was. That vacuum slowed supporters to accept the party’s truth rather than the Westminster convention. That’s why people say we don’t make good civil servants because we shouldn’t cower before any authority, we should just follow the rules,” argued Charles.

But EOJ boss Glasspole Brown rubbished the assertion.

“The Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) always declares the count in all parliamentary seat and municipal elections. In the LGE, the count for each division by candidates was declared. The winner of each municipality was also announced by the EOJ,” Brown stated.

On March 4, the EOJ, in a news release, said: “With all the ballots counted, the result was that the JLP won the elections for control of the local authorities with seven of the local authorities and the PNP won six of the local authorities inclusive of the Portmore municipality.”

The PNP won the overall popular vote by receiving 326,450 ballots, compared to 301,043 for the JLP. PNP won 115 of the 228 divisions, while the JLP won 113.

By-elections would be held in the Morant Bay (PNP) and Aenon Town (JLP) divisions in St Thomas and Clarendon, respectively, following the deaths of the councillors elected in February. The PNP won both, holding on to Morant Bay, while snatching Aenon Town from the JLP. The latter has triggered a still-unresolved leadership crisis at the municipal corporation as both parties believe they should have the mayorship. The JLP believes it should now have the mayor as the seats are now even and it has the overall popular vote when taken in the context of the February polls, but the JLP is adamant that a mayor cannot be unseated in such a manner.

By-elections were also held in two parliamentary seats – St Andrew North Western, which was vacated by former Finance Minister Dr Nigel Clarke; and Trelawny Southern, vacated a year earlier by the JLP’s Marisa Dalrymple Philibert. The PNP did not contest the seats, which saw the JLP’s Duane Smith winning in St Andrew North Western and Dalrymple Philibert returning in Trelawny Southern.

GOOD YEAR FOR JLP

From the ruling JLP’s perspective, General Secretary Dr Horace Chang believed that 2024 had been a strong year for the party, despite challenges.

“As general secretary, I think the party had a good year. A steady, a sober year, but a good year and at a place where we can move forward effectively. It was an interesting year, not in terms of government programmes, but it still sets the tone for the political party in Government.

“It’s the second term and you know the challenges, but we pulled out our base, and we did well enough to maintain our plurality in terms of the divisions in the LGE, as well as holding on to the parish councils that we had and have an interest in. So in terms of holding enough divisions to equate to the opposition, and the second term – third year – it’s not one that you would be unduly concerned with,” Chang told The Sunday Gleaner.

He said the LGE provided an opportunity for the party to gauge the mood of its supporters and the public, noting that there was a low level of interest in the elections.

One notable political development was the departure of Clarke, who had been a significant figure within the JLP. Chang praised Clarke’s tenure, describing him as an outstanding finance minister and “brilliant econometrist” who managed the economy well.

“Clarke brought political positives, and though it was expected that he would move to the international arena, it came earlier than expected,” he said.

But the high point for the party was its annual conference, Chang said.

“A conference tests your ability to really mobilise your workers, their mood, their response, and that went very well. We had a quality conference. It also tests the ability of our management team to organise the logistics and the presentation of a major event, which is what election day is about, and we did extremely well. In fact, there was concern as to whether we could do it, and do it well enough to build up our confidence, and that of the people and the energy of our supporters,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

While acknowledging the importance of public opinion polls in modern politics – with the rising popularity of the PNP – Chang said there are many factors to bear in mind, adding that a party does not go to the polls unless it believes the conditions are favourable to it.

“So I think right now, it was a good year for the party in spite of finding its second-term government challenging. We are leaving it in a good space, and comfortable at the level of the organisation we are at, and we’ll take it to the level required before we have the intent of general election mode,” he said.

Issues impacting the politics and government were roads and rains, the latter solved the chronic water problems, while the former, devastated roads. Chang noted that the Government is moving aggressively in the communities to repair roads, and the impact will be seen.

Crime, he said, is an emotional issue, but he also believes the Government did well in managing the issue.

PNP RISES IN FAVOURABILITY

The PNP saw a significant rise in its favourability ratings under the leadership of Mark Golding. Since taking over as party leader in 2020, Golding had seen the PNP trailing in opinion polls. However, following the LGE, the PNP gained momentum, with Golding’s favourability ratings narrowing the gap with Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness.

A poll by Market Research Services Limited in April 2024 revealed that 36.8 per cent of respondents indicated that, were a general election to be held shortly, they would vote for the PNP, versus 29 per cent who said they would vote for the JLP.

PNP General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell highlighted the significance of the party’s rise, saying, “They mocked and jeered, and we continued to do the work. The LGE was a watershed moment. It made people realise that he (Golding) and the PNP are real and it can campaign, that the PNP is a credible political organisation, and I believe subsequently that it inspired and motivated our supporters and caused them to believe what is possible”.

Campbell said the LGE was the biggest political news for the year.

“For a party that only won 14 out of 63 constituencies in 2020 to come out and register more votes than they did in the general election to win more divisions – and to win the popular vote – was a tremendous achievement,” he stated.

However, Golding’s leadership was not without controversy. He became the target of racial attacks, particularly from JLP members who sought to undermine his credibility by focusing on his dual citizenship with the United Kingdom, although permitted under the Constitution.

Golding pushed back against those who questioned his loyalty to Jamaica and defended his citizenship status, explaining that he had inherited his British citizenship from his late father and had never used a British passport. He subsequently renounced the citizenship, but the attacks continued.

It was also revealed that then-Senator Matthew Samuda and the Opposition Spokesman on Finance Julian Robinson also held permissible Commonwealth citizenships. Both men also renounced their British citizenship.

Campbell condemned the racial attacks on Golding, arguing that they were an attempt to distract from issues of governance.

“[They are] asking us to ignore the poor governance and rampant corruption that is in the system and to focus on where somebody’s father was born as opposed to where the individual himself was born, what they stand for and what their career and life have represented. And I think the majority of persons will reject that. If anything, it has rallied the Comrades and that is why we have seen more of a coming together of supporters and his (Golding’s) favourability rising,” he reasoned. “The JLP responded to the polls by deciding to attack him as an individual, which has never worked in Jamaican politics and I don’t think it will start working now.”

Charles commented on the role of race in Jamaican politics, stating, “If the incumbent – the Government in power and the prime minister – if they are becoming unpopular, you could draw the race card til thy kingdom come, nothing will change. Because, while it can appeal to the people’s racial identity, Jamaica is not as racially divided as, say, the United States. So, it’s not going to appeal to voters in the same way as it would in the United States. ... It’s not your age or your race that matters; it’s your popularity. The mistake the JLP is making is they think that they can use race to undermine his popularity”.

Political analyst Dr Paul Bourne believed that the LGE represented a turning point in the political landscape.

“I think the momentum the PNP got ... by winning the popular vote set off so many of the JLP utterances in 2024. Right now, they are losing it, but they have to do some good work ... and allow people to start living the prosperity life they promised,” he said.

ANNUAL CONFERENCES, BUSINESS CYCLE

As the year progressed, both parties held their annual conferences, which served as crucial moments for rallying supporters. Golding’s September conference was seen as a success, with the PNP showcasing its new momentum and commitment to issues like affordable housing and infrastructure development. Surprise appearances by newly freed dancehall artiste Vybz Kartel and Accompong Maroon Chief Richard Currie sent Comrades into a frenzy.

The JLP’s November conference, however, was marked by giveaways and promises of new economic measures. Prime Minister Holness announced a range of initiatives, including a three-month amnesty for National Water Commission customers and tax reductions for low-income earners, all aimed at boosting the party’s appeal in the lead-up to the general election.

Despite these efforts, Charles described the JLP’s approach as part of the “political business cycle”, noting that such measures often emerge in the run-up to elections.

“He (Holness) came to the annual conference with the basket of goodies that was to appease. Is it enough? I don’t know. But, sometimes I wonder about politicians because so many things are done in the election year. It is what we call in political science, the political business cycle. You try to get things out, put a lot of policy out or things to be done within that year. But, major things that can transform the lives of voters or Jamaicans in general, cannot be done in one year. So it’s just foolhardy to be giving out goodies in an election year. That might work when – Did $1.5 million no tax not work? It worked because the race was close,” Charles stated.

He said the JLP prosperity politics was “good brand, but over time, it became a word rather than an experience”. The political climate and currents are not the same going into the 2025 general elections, Charles told The Sunday Gleaner.

For Dr Lloyd Waller, professor of digital transformation policy and governance at The UWI, the resignation of Dr Nigel Clarke was the biggest political news of the year.

“The departure of Dr Nigel Clarke from the party, the Government and Jamaica, I think that was a kind of a shocker. For me, personally, I didn’t know that he was going to be leaving the party and as such leaving the Government,” said Waller, who is also head of the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies.

“I’m pretty sure that the brilliant ministry staff would have learned what to do and the current minister (Fayval Williams) is an effective financial person. So I would think given all of what he has done and the legacy that exists and the knowledge that exists in the ministry based on engagement with him and the senior staff, I think that we still have the capacity and the capabilities to continue his legacy,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

TOOTHLESS OMBUDSMEN

The failure of the current political ombudsman is similar to its previous form, according to Charles.

He noted the Electoral Commission of Jamaica’s silence on several matters since the ombudsman duties were subsumed into that body.

“They have been silent on the race issue, and they are silent on other issues. They were given responsibility without authority. They should have responded to the racial attack on Mark Golding,” he stated.

Lloyd B. Smith, publisher and former MP, remarked, “Both parties stand to suffer the consequences of no consensus as to what should be the role of the political ombudsman in this environment, leading especially up to an election, which from all indications, is going to be a very contentious and intense one. We have already seen signs of that intensity and having [an effective ombudsman] is going to be critical,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

He believes the elections will be consequential and external observers may have to be called in.

“I would suspect, we have CAFFE, I don’t know what they can do, but I would suggest that they may have to look and civil society may have to look at lobbying for international observers, whether they come from the United Nations or from the Organisation of American States or whoever, to at least highlight, if any, these types of situations which could embarrass us as a country and may, therefore, cause the political leaders to seek to curb their followers and those who are hell-bent on creating mayhem or violence. There are just too many verbal clashes and so on which can really get out of hand,” Smith suggested.

erica.virtue@gleanerjm.com