Elizabeth Morgan | Reasons for increasing concern about developments in this hemisphere

IN THIS column on August 27, concern was raised about the US military build-up in the Caribbean Sea. The US, we have been told, has declared war on cartels supplying drugs, as it had declared war on foreign terrorists in 2001. In the illegal narcotic drugs trade, there seem to be willing participants also in the USA.

At the time of writing, possibly six small vessels, including a ‘submarine’, have been blown up by the US military in the Caribbean and nearly 32 people have been killed. Reports have said that two Trinidadian nationals were killed in one incident and, in another, there were two survivors who were repatriated to their countries, Ecuador and Colombia. To date, there has been no concrete evidence of drug trafficking and the actual destination of the vessels presented to the media and the US Congress. This is actually quite chilling. No wonder fishing folks in this region are expressing their fears.

It is well known that the Caribbean has been and continues to be a transshipment zone for narcotic drugs, primarily, cannabis (marijuana/ganja) and cocaine. It is reported, though, that one vessel destroyed in the Caribbean was loaded with the drug, fentanyl, a drug, it is reported, that is not usually traded through the Caribbean. An online search suggests that most of the illegal drugs entering the USA do not originate from the Caribbean basin.

CARICOM COUNTRIES

It is increasingly assessed that this military action in the Caribbean is not just about trafficking in narcotic drugs, but has a deeper intent which could involve Venezuela and its administration. The Venezuelan Opposition Leader, recent Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado, has expressed her gratitude to the US President for his support and did not seem to be opposed to the US presence in the south Caribbean. It is known that the Secretary of State and now National Security Advisor, Marco Rubio, has a special interest in this hemisphere and, particularly, Latin America and the Caribbean.

CARICOM countries addressed the US military build-up and actions in the Caribbean in their UN General Assembly (UNGA) statements. They generally noted that any action in the Caribbean Sea must be within international law. They have mainly called for the Caribbean to remain a zone of peace, while expressing their concerns about crime and violence in their countries, and the threats to peace and security posed by gangs and the illegal trade in small arms and ammunition, primarily originating from the USA. Regarding the latter, see this column of October 8 on illegal trade, including guns and drugs.

The CARICOM countries, given their different relationships, situations, and positions in the region, have taken a cautious tone. This was reflected in their statement issued this weekend.

The country, which seems to be charting its own course in support of the US presence and positions, is Trinidad and Tobago, which did not join the CARICOM statement and issued its own. Trinidad and Tobago, under its new administration of the United National Congress and its leader and Prime Minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, has given its support to the US military presence in the region, and, seemingly, to any US military action. At the UNGA, the prime minister added “within international law”. The Trinidad and Tobago government is concerned about its access to the Dragon gas field reserves, which are actually in Venezuela’s Exclusive Economic Zone, illegal Venezuelan migrants, and, like other CARICOM countries, crime and violence in its territory.

VENEZUELA

The Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela has been a divisive issue in the hemisphere, through the Organization of American States, with the concern that it is not a legitimate government. Caribbean countries’ involvement with Venezuela included oil purchases through the PetroCaribe Agreement which benefited CARICOM countries. Some CARICOM countries are members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America established by Venezuela.

Then resurfaced the Venezuela/Guyana border controversy in which the Maduro regime is claiming nearly 40 per cent of Guyana’s territory in the oil rich Essequibo region. Note that Venezuela has the world’s largest reserves of oil estimated in 2023 at 303 billion barrels. Guyana has about 12 billion barrels. So, this unfounded claim on Guyanese territory has created tension between Venezuela and CARICOM countries, and caused division within CARICOM.

The oil in Guyana is being mined by US firm, Exxon Mobil. The US and Britain have given support to Guyana. Guyana has taken the border issue to the International Court of Justice. St Vincent and the Grenadines and Brazil have tried to mediate to defuse tensions between Venezuela and Guyana.

Following the July 2024 presidential elections in Venezuela in which Maduro declared victory, it was widely felt that these elections were not legitimate. So, the Maduro regime has not made friends in this region and elsewhere in the West. It has allies in Russia and China.

Since returning to the US Presidency in January, Trump and Rubio have increased the pressure on the Maduro regime. The regime has been linked to drug trafficking and declared involved in narco-terrorism. A Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua, has been declared a foreign terrorist organisation. So, hence there is a US military flotilla now operating in the Caribbean. It is recently reported that the US president has authorised a Central Intelligence Agency covert operation in Venezuela.

The USA, it is reported, is also seeking cooperation from Grenada to station military equipment there. So, it seems some serious operation is envisaged.

SO, WHAT IF?

Starting with a positive, what if the US carries out a successful operation in Venezuela, without any intervention from Russia, China or any other country, and President Maduro is successfully removed from office? It is assumed that the majority of Venezuelans would welcome the change, and one assumes that the opposition led by Maria Machado will come to power. Relations with Venezuela would return to normal and Guyana would rest easy. Oil purchases could even resume.

In this scenario, what happens with Cuba, Nicaragua and any other administration not in the US’ favour? Which country would be next on the US’ list? Does the US further assert its dominance in this hemisphere?

But, on the negative side, what if it all goes wrong and does not turn out as planned? The US does not have a good track record in interventions and regime change – some previous US interventions in this hemisphere have not worked out so well; and there are a list of others elsewhere which have not been so successful. In some cases, the US has left countries in a state of instability from which it has been difficult to recover.

So, for this column, there is reason to be concerned about what is happening in this hemisphere, not just what is happening in the southern Caribbean and what might happen in Venezuela. The relationship, including in trade, between the USA and Canada (the 51st state?) is strained; it is not so warm with Mexico; it is chilly with Brazil; and it is an increasing standoff with Colombia, formerly a close US ally. USA relations in the hemisphere are showing cracks. Nearer home, let us not forget a very real problem on our doorsteps in Haiti.

We should also be looking at what is happening in the USA itself. There is fear that it is becoming undemocratic. There is growing discontent there. Note the nationwide demonstrations on Saturday, October 18.

On December 4-5, the Summit of the Americas is scheduled to be held in the Dominican Republic. That should be an extremely interesting meeting, if it materialises.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com