Basil Jarrett | What STATIN’s new census really tells us

AN INTERESTING report came out last week from the Institute of Family Studies in the USA, a right-wing organisation that seems to favour conservative causes such as anti-abortion and anti-gay rights. I add this important fact to give a bit of context to the report which claimed that divorce rates in heterosexual couples rise significantly when a woman is more professionally successful than her husband. Conversely, the report claims that the marriages that are more likely to thrive are the ones that more closely fit the traditional model of having a male breadwinner. Someone should send it to Steph Curry and tell him he’s safe. For now.

That article and its somewhat dubious claims preceded another more statistically sound study coming out of the Statistical Institute of Jamaica’s (STATIN’s) 2022 Population and Housing Census data that was released later last week.

STATIN’s major announcement in their preview of the full document was a rather benign, even hopeful, claim that Jamaica’s population grew by 2.8 per cent, up from 2.69 million in 2011 to 2.77 million in 2022. St Catherine is booming apparently and Kingston and St Andrew are bursting at the seams, while Clarendon, Manchester and St James have all added numbers. But, as STATIN’s Director of Censuses Stacy-Ann Robinson indicated, the equivalent average annual growth rate of 0.24 per cent for the current census was the lowest recorded over the period 1970 to 2022.

Robinson noted that this was driven mainly by a 42.2 per cent decline in births and by population losses because of deaths, with migration adding a bit to the mix. So once again, we are being told that our birth rate has collapsed and our death rate is climbing.

Now, let’s be clear on one thing. Despite STATIN’s attempt to explain the reason behind those numbers, that’s not their job. Much of the agency’s work is largely descriptive analytics. Measure, model, and report. But it’s someone’s job to make sense of what the data is actually telling us. And, for me, it is screaming that we’re losing our future faster than we’re building it.

A 42 PER CENT DECLINE IN BIRTHS

STATIN says that, between 1970 and 1982, Jamaica recorded almost 750,000 births. By comparison, between 2011 and 2022, we recorded just over 432,000. That’s a 42.2 per cent drop. Nearly 50 per cent. This isn’t just a dip, it’s a demographic landslide.

Yes, global fertility rates are falling, but Jamaica’s drop is sharper than many of our Caribbean neighbours. And the implications are worrying. Fewer students, fewer workers, fewer taxpayers, fewer soldiers and police officers, fewer caregivers for our elderly and, very importantly, fewer persons funding pensions. This last one stands out for me as a person who was recently told to join the senior citizen line at the bank. I was about to object but the line was short and I was running late so … .

FEWER PEOPLE TO DO THE HEAVY LIFTING

We are, quite literally, raising fewer Jamaicans to carry the weight of a growing society.

This is something I’ve written about at length before. In previous columns, I’ve bemoaned the fact that women are complaining that it’s getting to be too expensive to have children in Jamaica and, worse, the current crop of available men is just not cutting it as potential baby daddies.

Which brings us back to my opening act on the Institute of Family Studies report. If you take that report, accept it as a qualified fact, and layer it over the Jamaican situation, perhaps it makes perfect sense. Because, if American women are filing for divorce in larger numbers when they are the main breadwinners, then their Jamaican counterparts are saying, “Divorce? Honey, we aren’t even getting married, much less having children in the first place” if these men can’t keep up.

Between rent, mortgage, school fees, childcare, formula, medical bills, and uniforms, women are finding it tough to juggle that spreadsheet. The decision to have a child isn’t just an emotional one, it’s heavily financial. For women today, a partner’s self-worth is tied directly to his income, for practical reasons. It not only allows them to better cope with said spreadsheet, but also leaves her with a disposable income to spend on nice things.

When she proposes that luxury vacation for the two of them, for example, he’ll probably look at his wallet and insist on a cheaper trip with divided costs. All of this feels like compromise for someone who has done all the hard work in order to have, to hold, and to enjoy nice things. Not that babies aren’t nice, mind you.

So what we’re seeing is a vanishing of stable, adult births as educated women who want children simply can’t afford them because the other half isn’t pulling his weight financially.

A SURGE IN DEATHS: THE AGEING NATION

And then there’s the other half of the story. In the same period (2011 to 2022), deaths jumped from 188,993 to 236,687. That’s a 25 per cent increase. How? I thought we were living longer, more productive lives. Some of that is explained by our love affair with murders, as well as our ageing population. Jamaicans are living longer, which is a public health success story. But longevity without quality of life, healthcare infrastructure, or social support is a ticking time bomb.

We’ve built a society that now has more senior citizens than ever before, but without building the services, pensions, or medical systems to care for them properly. Of course, COVID-19 distorted the data, with its peak falling right in the middle of this census period. But, even if you control for the pandemic, the trend is undeniable: deaths are increasing at a faster rate than we’re replacing those lives.

THE COLD REALITY

Here’s what no one is saying: Jamaica’s population is growing at the slowest rate in 50 years, not because we’re stable, but because we’re stuck. Stuck between fewer births, more deaths, and a net migration that continues to rob us of our best minds and most productive workers.

Again, it’s not STATIN’s job to find the answers. But it is someone’s. We need an urgent national task force on demographic renewal, affordable childcare, maternal health, elder care, migration reversal, and, most critically, a mission to save our boys.

STATIN’s report is an alarm bell and this census is a mirror. And what it’s reflecting back isn’t just who we are but who we’re becoming. We can still change course. But only if we start answering these very important questions that STATIN has raised.

Major Basil Jarrett is the director of communications at the Major Organised Crime and Anti-Corruption Agency (MOCA) and crisis communications consultant. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, Threads @IamBasilJarrett and linkedin.com/in/basiljarrett. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com