Elizabeth Morgan | An increasingly divided and dangerous world

Normally, at the start of a new year, analysts would be looking at the trade and economic agenda and the key issues to be addressed to spur economic growth. This year analysts are focused on the increasingly alarming threats and policy positions emerging from the USA, the heralded leader of the free world.

AS TENSIONS INCREASE

The annual World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland, January 19-23, is to examine the challenges to the global economy and multilateral governance under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue”. It is reported that President Donald Trump and key cabinet members are to participate. This is at a point of increased tension between European countries and the Trump administration over threats to acquire the Danish semi-autonomous territory of Greenland and the imposition of additional tariffs.

So, the European countries and Canada, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are annoyed, so are countries in Latin America, including Mexico, after Trump’s Venezuela adventure, and so are countries in Africa, after his treatment of South Africa and bombings in Nigeria. The situation in the Middle East is tense with the Palestinian issue not settled, and upheaval in and threats to Iran. The war in Ukraine has not been resolved. Everywhere else is monitoring these developments very carefully, listening for the latest mind boggling utterances or social media posts from US President Donald Trump. Along with threats of US military action and imposing tariffs worldwide, everyone is on edge. This meeting in Davos could be very awkward.

Upcoming meetings in 2026 include the Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (MC14) scheduled for Cameroon in March; the G7 Summit in France in June; the UN General Assembly, New York, September; UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference (COP31), Turkiye in November; and the G20 Summit, Miami, Florida, USA, in December. The Summit of the Americas was postponed from last year and should be rescheduled for 2026.

It is reported that the 16th United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD XVI) was actually held in Geneva in October 2025. We now know that the US will cease to participate in and fund UNCTAD.

While trying to address the trade and economic agenda and the scheduled meetings, the anxious focus is on the Americans as the world becomes more divided and dangerous.

IN THE AGE OF POWER DOMINANCE

Looking back to the ages when power dominance was the norm, there was always turmoil and, in most cases, it did not work out well for those subjugated. India came under British influence in the 19th century, as the princely Maharajas sought power and to expand territory. The British East India Company was able to exploit their divisions and control India.

Although there are those who consistently try to convince us that the African chiefs were coerced into the Transatlantic Slave Trade, it is evident that there were constant struggles for power and territory in Africa. As in India, European powers were able to gain control in Africa through alliances with these chiefs. Again, the Europeans capitalised on internal divisions.

The divisions could also be seen in the Middle East, as powers rose, expanded territory, and fell. It was interesting recently to look at the history of Iran, formerly Persia. In the 20th Century, leaders came to power and were overthrown, in some instances by foreign powers, after oil was discovered. In 1953, the USA and Britain ousted the democratically elected government and reinstalled the Shah (the monarch). In 1979, a popular uprising (the Iranian Islamic Revolution) ousted the Shah, and with a referendum (98% in favour) installed the Islamic cleric, Ayatollah Khomeini as Supreme Leader, introducing a theocracy, the Islamic Republic of Iran. Through 46 years of this autocratic theocracy, there has been increasing electors’ remorse in that country.

For those of us who studied European history, we know that Europe, including Russia, had a long and violent history of power struggles and seizure of territory building empires. We know of the French megalomaniacs, Louis XIV (1661-1715) and Napoleon Bonaparte (1799-1815). Interestingly, there was a period of over 40 years of relative peace in Europe, known as the Belle Époque, 1871-1914. This period ended with the outbreak of the complex World War 1, the start of which is given as due to militarism, nationalism, and imperialism with the villain being Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany. World War II became the sequel to WW1 as a corporal in the defeated WW1 German Army, Adolf Hitler, sought to make Germany great again. Most of us know that his quest for power and territorial expansion turned into a global tragedy. Nearly 85 million people died in this war, about 55 million were civilians.

Out of this global catastrophe came the United Nations multilateral system and the NATO alliance brokered by the USA, which has kept most of the world relatively secure and brought prosperity to mainly the developed countries for 80 years. In the last 40 years, China and some other developing countries have emerged. The US is revolting against global systems of its own making.

WHERE IS THE COUNTER FORCE?

It is indeed ironic that today, President Donald Trump and his Make America Great Again supporters have brought the world to increasing division and to the most dangerous period since the end of WWII in 1945. The country, which people now fear more than ever before, is not China or Russia, alarmingly, it is the USA.

We are all now on tenterhooks waiting for the next outrageous threat/action from the US administration. Countries should be examining their options.

In the former eras of power dominance, there were alliances which countered the threats and violations. At the present time, we are searching for the counter forces. Out of the UN’s 193 members, as reality dawns, is resistance emerging, or is fear winning the day? Let’s see what happens over Greenland.

Things are not looking so good inside the USA either.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.