HISTORY AGAINST THEM

When polls close today, over 50 candidates from outside Jamaica’s two main political parties – the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP) – will be hoping for a political breakthrough. This includes candidates from the Jamaica Progressive Party (JPP), the United Independents’ Congress (UIC), and several independents. However, history suggests their chances are slim.

The last time an independent candidate won a seat in a Jamaican general election was 1949. That year, independents won two of 32 seats and received 12.6 per cent of the vote. The JLP won 17 to the PNP’s 13.

In 1944, independents even outperformed the PNP in total votes, winning five seats with 30 per cent of the vote. The PNP, which also won five seats, got 23.5 per cent of the votes. The JLP, with 22 seats and 41.4 per cent of the votes, won the election.

Since then, the political landscape has been dominated by the two main parties.

For the 2025 election, the JPP has fielded 43 candidates, the UIC 7, and eight independents have been nominated. Each hopes to sway voters dissatisfied with the status quo, but political observers are sceptical.

Attorney and political commentator Clyde Williams believes campaign financing remains a major hurdle.

“It costs a lot to campaign and to put an election machinery together,” he told The Gleaner.

“[Also] because the parliamentarians form an electoral college to select a prime minister, many people do not pay attention to a one or two candidate here and there, because they will never form a government. So, as a consequence, many people will not vote for an independent or third-party candidate, because they feel that they are ‘wasting’ their vote,” he reasoned.

Williams suggests that proportional representation – particularly in the Senate – might allow third parties a better chance.

Veteran journalist and political commentator Lloyd B. Smith is similarly doubtful about third-party and independent success.

“Given the history of independent candidates running in our general elections, I would say, if they garner a minimum of 25 per cent of the overall eligible voters in their constituency, then that would be a good showing. Below that, which I suspect may very well be the case, it would be an academic exercise,” he said.

He noted that some candidates run to maintain a party’s visibility or simply out of loyalty.

“They could be asked to keep a presence in the electoral process rather than having the other persons having a clean sweep with no challengers. So they are using someone as a token gesture on their part, so it’s a matter of party loyalty and keeping the party’s name on the ballot,” Smith added.

“I don’t want to sound rude but there is a saying insanity is always doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. So, to me, it borders on an exercise in futility, so it’s all part and parcel of ego tripping. But people have a right, it’s their democratic right to put up themselves to be elected, so we should not dissuade them from doing so and, in that vein, we should congratulate them for having the courage and the determination.”

Under the Representation of the People Act, an independent candidate must receive at least five per cent of the eligible votes in their constituency to be refunded their nomination fees.

Candidates paid $15,000 on Nomination Day to be entered to contest the general election.

While smaller parties struggle for relevance, both the JLP and PNP are locked in a close race. With both claiming strong support and pointing to large crowds on the campaign trail, efficient election day machinery could determine the outcome.

Smith emphasised the critical role of party workers:

“Workers on the day have to be very vigilant. Number one in terms of watching proceedings in the vicinity of the polling stations and wider community, watching out for vote buying or cajoling, bribing or intimidation or any such attempt.

“The runners are important. These are the people pulling out the voters. They go to the homes to pull out people based on the parties’ canvassing and enumeration that was done earlier. They go for the invalids who cannot walk and do not have means of transport to lift them up and take them to the polling stations.”

Williams told The Gleaner this level of efficiency is a crucial component to a party’s victory at the polls.

“If they have not done a good canvass, then they will have problems on the day. So, on the day, you know exactly the people that told you in the canvassing that ‘yes, wi ah guh vote for you’, as well as those who may or may not turn out.

“Some parties like to know by 2 o’clock that at least 80 per cent of their voters have cast their ballots. That’s the role of the outdoor agents at the polling stations and they are going to be seated in the same area for the JLP and PNP. Their job is to keep abreast of the voters they know are voting for their party and that is fed to their party headquarters. By early afternoon, they are checking the list of enumerated voters and they know those who have not yet cast their vote and they send out their drivers for those people. It’s everything, it has to be well organised and it costs money.”

And Williams stressed that ensuring that your workers are happy is another important element on the day.

“Things like food, water, drinks, you don’t want your workers to be unhappy on election day. Another set of workers are the indoor agents and they are to ensure that there is no hanky panky inside the polling centre and then each party also oversees the sealing of the ballot boxes, watch as they are loaded into the vehicles, and that they are transported to the counting centres without incident.”

Final results are expected after the preliminary count tonight, with the official count set for tomorrow.

karen.madden@gleanerjm.com