TIEBREAKER
JLP eyes rare third term in tight race, having equal wins as PNP since 1944
Published:Wednesday | September 3, 2025 | 12:13 AMJovan Johnson/Senior Staff Reporter
Jamaica’s 19th general election unfolds today as a high-stakes political drama, with voters facing a choice between the Dr Andrew Holness-led Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) bid for a historic third term and Mark Golding’s People’s National Party’s (PNP) quest for a return to power.
On the line are 63 parliamentary seats, with 184 candidates vying for power in what polls have projected is a tight race to the 32 seats needed to control the House of Representatives.
Six candidates will also contest three local government by-elections.
The JLP and PNP have each entered a full slate, while the Jamaica Progressive Party is contesting 43 constituencies, the United Independents’ Congress seven, and nine candidates running independently. Of the 190 candidates in total, 136 are men and 54 women.
After a bitter and deeply personal campaign, voters now face a stark choice between the JLP’s narrative of performance and stability and the PNP’s platform of hope and integrity.
The final RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson poll, published on Sunday, has the PNP with a slender 3.1-percentage-point lead over the JLP, with 37.6 per cent of decided voters compared to the JLP’s 34.5 per cent. This gap sits just outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, making the race too close to call.
Some 23.1 per cent of the electorate were undecided.
Since Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944, Jamaicans have voted in 18 general elections, with the JLP and PNP each winning nine. The last four elections have underscored how swiftly fortunes can change.
In 2007, the JLP ended an 18-year drought by winning 32 seats to the PNP’s 28, returning to power for the first time since 1989. Four years later, in 2011, the pendulum swung sharply back as the JLP was swept out of office in a 42-21 landslide for the PNP.
In 2016, the contest could not have been tighter, with the JLP eking out a one-seat majority at 32–31. Then came 2020, when the JLP registered a stunning 49-14 victory, handing the PNP its heaviest defeat since 1980.
In that 2020 battle, the JLP flipped 15 seats, in addition to winning back Portland East and St Mary South East, both of which they had taken control of in by-elections during the previous term.
Among the 15 were seats the PNP held for decades – Kingston Central, the trio of Westmoreland seats, Manchester Southern and Central; Hanover West and St Thomas East.
HIGH-PROFILE RACE
Later Wednesday, eyes will be trained on whether the JLP’s Donovan Williams will hold on to Kingston Central, which he won by 303 votes.
In another high-profile race, the PNP’s Peter Bunting is seeking shelter in Manchester Southern, after losing Manchester Central to Rhoda Moy Crawford in 2020.
The PNP’s Damion Crawford (St Catherine North Western), Dr Dayton Campbell (Westmoreland Eastern), the party’s general secretary, and Dr Wykeham McNeill (Trelawny Northern) are among candidates seeking a return to the House.
Their JLP opponents have slammed them as “rejects” who have left their original constituencies in search of safe harbours.
JLP Chairman Robert Montague, in St Mary West; Agriculture Minister Floyd Green (St Elizabeth South West) and his junior minister, Franklyn Witter (St Elizabeth South East), are all contesting bellwether seats.
A total of 2,077,799 Jamaicans are on the official list of electors eligible to vote today, a slight increase from the 1,913,410 who were eligible to vote in the September 2020 general election.
National voter turnout has been on a steady decline, plummeting from 61.46 per cent in 2007 to a historic low of 37.85 per cent in 2020. The 2020 election was held just as community spread for the COVID-19 pandemic was confirmed.
For Holness, 53, today’s bid is to cement his political legacy, as a victory would make him the first JLP leader to secure three consecutive general election wins, putting him in the company of the PNP’s P.J. Patterson.
His campaign, under the slogan ‘Choose Jamaica’, has touted macroeconomic stability, a 3.3 per cent unemployment rate, and a significant year-on-year murder reduction of over 42 per cent as core achievements of his nine-year tenure.
“My administration has worked, worked and performed well,” Holness declared on the campaign trail, pointing to lower national debt. “We have lifted the standard of living in this country.”
However, Holness’s second term has not been without controversy. He enters the race under the shadow of an Integrity Commission investigation into his 2021 income filings for the alleged offence of illicit enrichment, a situation used by his political opponents to attack his suitability for office.
While the probe was inconclusive, Holness has mounted a legal challenge, accusing the commission of unfairness and seeking to strike down the very anti-corruption legislation passed under his administration. He has consistently denied any wrongdoing, stating, “Whatever I have, I’ve worked hard and honestly for it”.
Long-time JLP strategist Derrick Smith, in early August, expressed confidence in a historic third term, predicting the JLP would win “between 38 and 40 seats”.
For Opposition Leader Mark Golding, 60, this election represents what analysts have called his “one shot at glory”.
After taking the helm of a fractured PNP in November 2020, following a crushing defeat that saw the party win only 14 seats to the JLP’s 49, Golding has worked to heal internal divisions and rebuild the party’s base.
Golding has similarly faced a barrage of personal attacks, which has contrasted Holness’ upbringing in a Spanish Town board house with Golding’s background as an Oxford-educated investment banker and lawyer. His dual citizenship also became a campaign issue, prompting him to renounce his British citizenship, obtained through his father, to quell political risk.
He has sought to turn the tables by positioning himself as a leader with “clean hands and a clean heart” and framing the election as a referendum on the incumbent Government’s integrity.
“We are going to bring integrity, trustworthiness and honour back into the centre of leadership of the country after 10 years of hanky-panky, rip off, cronyism, nepotism and outright tiefing,” Golding argued at a recent rally.
Both parties have made ambitious, and controversial, promises that have prompted warnings from private sector groups about the potential impact on the nation’s finances.
In a statement three days before the polls, Holness promised to double the minimum wage from $16,000 to $32,000 weekly over five years. There is also a promise to reduce the income tax rate from 25 per cent to 15 per cent on a phased basis, provide grants and expanded student loans for university students, build over 70, 000 houses over the next five years, and focus more on roads and water.
The PNP has vowed to raise the income-tax-free threshold for persons with annual earnings of $3.5 million, remove taxes on overtime and tips, and build 50,000 low-income houses. Their platform also includes an enhanced school feeding programme, a $10,000 monthly transportation subsidy for needy children, and a scholarship for the first member of a family to qualify for tertiary education.
Oversight of the polls will be extensive. Local watchdog Citizens Action for Free & Fair Elections will monitor voting, alongside international observer missions from the Organization of American States (OAS), CARICOM, and smaller delegations from the British High Commission, United States Embassy, and European Union.
The process will also be tracked by the Election Centre, an Electoral Office of Jamaica hub set up to receive and validate reports from the ground, resolve incidents, and issue updates to the media. The Constituted Authority, which has the power to halt or void elections if necessary, will oversee proceedings.