Region faces rising food insecurity risk from El Niño

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the World Food Programme (WFP) are strengthening coordination and support for governments across Latin America and the Caribbean in response to forecasts of El Niño.

At a high-level roundtable yesterday, the agencies focused on early action, preparedness and resilience to mitigate the effects of increasingly volatile climate conditions.

Despite recent progress, more than 33 million people in the region remain affected by hunger, while 167 million face moderate or severe food insecurity. Over 181 million cannot afford a healthy diet. The Americas also account for 22 per cent of global agricultural disaster losses, estimated at US$713 billion.

El Niño threatens to compound these vulnerabilities. The phenomenon could trigger drought across Central America’s Dry Corridor while disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns more broadly. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates the probability of El Niño at between 70 and 80 per cent, with peak intensity expected towards the end of the year.

RISING PRICES

Economic pressures are likely to worsen the outlook. High international prices for fuel, fertilisers and food are expected to erode household purchasing power further, placing additional strain on social protection systems and humanitarian responses.

At the roundtable, Julian Báez, director of the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Office for the Americas, warned that the effects could be moderate to severe. He pointed to increased rainfall in parts of South America, raising the risk of flooding, alongside rainfall deficits in Central and North America.

Governments are already beginning to respond. With United Nations support, several Central American countries have activated anticipatory action plans after meteorological thresholds signalling water scarcity were reached. More than 76,000 people are being reached through early interventions, including public messaging, cash transfers, the distribution of staple grains and strengthened weather monitoring systems.

Rene Orellana Halkyer, assistant director-general and regional representative of the FAO for Latin America and the Caribbean, said the organisation’s resilience programmes are helping countries identify priority areas and address critical gaps. “In response to El Niño, anticipatory actions implemented together with governments and partners in nine countries across the region, benefited hundreds of rural communities through direct support, the rehabilitation of water and irrigation systems, the distribution of inputs, and capacity strengthening, protecting livelihoods and increasing the production of staple crops by up to 40 per cent.”

Rocío Medina Bolívar, regional director of IFAD’s Latin America and the Caribbean Division, stressed the need for sustained investment in rural communities.

 “Long-term investment in rural communities and strengthening their capacities is essential so they can adapt to climate events, be prepared for future impacts, and continue producing food for the region. Building resilience today means creating the conditions to generate jobs, expand opportunities, and improve quality of life in rural territories.”

Lena Savelli, regional director of the WFP, argued that the focus must shift towards prevention rather than response. 

“Extreme climate events will continue to occur, but we can prevent them from triggering humanitarian crises. By combining insurance, credit, and digital financial services, we help governments and communities withstand droughts, floods, and storms,” she said. “We are transforming humanitarian responses as we know them, so that social protection systems leave no one behind and communities can save, insure themselves, and receive support as soon as early warnings are triggered, instead of waiting, instead of waiting for assistance after the impact.”