Fiscal watchdog reports marginal increase in Jamaica’s public debt burden

Jamaica’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has increased marginally amid an eight per cent increase in the stock of public debt, the country’s independent fiscal monitor has disclosed.

At the end of March this year, the stock of debt for the specified public sector — central government and select self-financing public bodies — stood at $2.4 trillion, an increase of $179.8 billion year-on-year, according to the latest report by the Independent Fiscal Commission (IFC).

The IFC is Jamaica’s non-partisan oversight body tasked with monitoring, assessing and reporting on the Government’s compliance with fiscal rules.

It noted in a 56-page report on the country’s economic performance for the 2025–2026 fiscal year that, based on “preliminary data” at the end of March this year, it “imputed” Jamaica’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 65.6 per cent, up from 62.5 per cent at the end of March last year.

The IFC, however, acknowledged that the current estimate is below the 68.9 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio projected by the Government in the Fiscal Policy Paper published in February this year.

It said this is due to a combination of a lower-than-anticipated nominal debt stock and higher nominal GDP.

Jamaica was on course to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 per cent at the end of the current fiscal year before the fiscal rules were suspended in the wake of the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa last October.

The IFC noted that amid the suspension, the Government has yet to legislate a new timeline to reach a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 per cent.

“The IFC reiterates that robust fiscal consolidation efforts will be essential to returning the debt to a sustained downward path toward this ceiling,” the report by the oversight body said.

It said that at the end of the suspension, and in conformity with the requirements of the Financial Administration and Audit Act, the Government is expected to outline these measures in the next Fiscal Policy Paper.

- Livern Barrett

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