Infantino’s World Cup investment plan fallout reshapes March FIFA vote

GENEVA (AP):

FIFA President Gianni Infantino is already in globe-trotting campaign mode more than five months before member federations vote on who will lead world football’s governing body until 2031.

The March 18 election comes as Infantino faces the biggest leadership crisis of his presidency, sparked by backlash against his now-abandoned plan to sell private investors a stake in the commercial rights to the World Cup and other FIFA tournaments.

As the vote approaches, the FIFA leader has maintained a demanding travel schedule. In the past two weeks, his Qatari jet has criss-crossed the globe, taking him from Saudi Arabia to New York, across the Caribbean, to northern Europe and then to Central and South-East Asia, where he has met representatives from at least 20 of the federations that will vote in Morocco.

So where do things stand?

An Associated Press tally shows that 87 of FIFA’s 211 member federations have indicated support for Infantino, either through individual comments or by endorsing declarations issued by their regional confederations.

That leaves him within reach of the simple majority needed to defeat a challenger, although none has formally entered the race so far.

As of yesterday, 49 federations, most of them in Europe, had declared their opposition to Infantino.

More than one-third of FIFA’s members have yet to announce their positions, and much could change before March. A key date is November 18, the deadline for prospective challengers to enter the contest.

Africa and South America back Infantino; Europe leads opposition

European football body UEFA, backed by the leadership of North American governing body Concacaf and the Asian Football Confederation, has pledged to field at least one challenger to Infantino. However, it remains unclear who that candidate might be.

The issue is expected to feature prominently when UEFA’s 55 member federations meet in Berlin this week.

UEFA has called on Infantino to resign, and many of its members have publicly withdrawn their support. However, not all UEFA nations have fallen into line. One of Infantino’s top aides is from Azerbaijan, which has continued to back the FIFA president.

Africa and South America remain strongholds for Infantino. In August, the executive committee of the African confederation, CAF, “unanimously” reaffirmed its support for him. However, it is unclear whether every member federation will follow the CAF position in March, as most have not publicly declared their views.

Infantino is expected to attend a CAF meeting in Cape Verde this week.

All 10 members of South America’s CONMEBOL have endorsed Infantino, including World Cup finalists Argentina. They favour expanding the 2030 World Cup, a move that would give South America more places and more matches to host. UEFA opposes the proposal for a 64-team tournament.

While the AFC leadership has joined criticism of Infantino, its members appear far from united. Former World Cup host Qatar has expressed support for the FIFA chief, while Jordan has declared its opposition.

Concacaf is also divided, with the United States and Canada among those opposing Infantino and Mexico backing him.

In Oceania, the Solomon Islands, Tahiti, and New Caledonia have pledged support for Infantino, while New Zealand withdrew its backing in August.

Secret investment plan changed everything

When Infantino watched the World Cup final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium near New York, he still enjoyed the support of nearly all FIFA member associations, and there appeared little doubt that he would secure a third term.

Just nine days later, media reports revealed talks between Infantino and New York investor Josh Kushner, the younger brother of Jared Kushner, to create a FIFA subsidiary that would run competitions including the World Cup.

A backlash led by European football officials and fuelled by senior FIFA executives forced Infantino to abandon the proposal within four days.

Since then, many European associations have questioned his leadership and withdrawn their support one by one.

UEFA has even said it is preparing a criminal complaint against Infantino over the investment proposal. FIFA has dismissed the legal threat as a “smear campaign”.

How candidates qualify and win

No sitting FIFA president has lost an election in the past 50 years. The ability to control and distribute World Cup revenues, now worth billions of dollars, has long given incumbents a significant advantage.

FIFA rules state that candidates must have “played an active role in association football (e.g., as a player or an official within FIFA, a confederation or an association, etc) for two of the last five years before being proposed”. They must also secure “declarations of support” from at least five of FIFA’s 211 member associations.

If only two candidates contest the election, a simple majority of valid votes is enough to win.

Where there are three or more candidates, a winning majority is “two thirds of the votes of the member associations present and eligible to vote”. The candidate with the lowest total in each round is eliminated until one secures a two-thirds majority or only two candidates remain.

Many federations around the world have reasons for not publicly declaring their intentions. In global football politics, there has long been concern about possible retribution for failing to back the eventual winner.

Spain, for example, is unlikely to advertise its preference while competing with Infantino ally Morocco to host the 2030 World Cup final.